How to Win at Football Betting
Betting on football is an exciting hobby. Done well, it can make you a fair amount of cash — or even earn you a living. Of course, not everyone wins at football betting; in fact, most people end up losing money with their betting adventures. So what is it that allows some punters to win big day-in and day-out, while others only ever take home a loss? In this guide, we'll share a two-step approach to making money by betting on football, which focuses on finding betting opportunities and managing your money.
Surprise surprise, the first step in winning at football betting is finding the right opportunities. However, there's a lot more that goes into finding betting opportunities than most people think. It's not just about picking bets that are "easy" or "look good", but instead about following a process that will allow you to consistently uncover profitable bets.
Use an exchange
Betting either takes place at a regular bookmaker or on a betting exchange. If you want to win at football betting, we recommend you opt for the latter. Since betting exchanges match your bets with other users, they typically offer much better odds than regular bookmakers. Try it: find any bookmaker and any betting exchange, and compare the odds on a random market for an upcoming sporting game. The odds can differ by as much as 10% or 20%, which makes a huge difference as to whether you win or lose with betting.
Review the right markets
Once you've landed yourself at a betting exchange, the next thing to do is to start reviewing the markets for upcoming sporting matches. With that said, not every market is right for someone who's serious about making money with betting. Some markets are based on chance more than others. Unless you have a crystal ball to tell you the future, you should avoid more luck-based markets, like trying to predict the exact score of a match at half- or full-time. Instead, look at markets where you have plenty of data available. Our favorite markets are the Over/Under and Double Chance markets. They offer a low risk profile and allow you to bet on the general direction of the game, based on past games between the same match-up, without having to predict outcomes too accurately.
Identify favourable odds
The last part of finding good opportunities is identifying favourable odds. It's all good and well finding markets you can predict, but you should only bet if the odds offered are better than the true likelihood of the market. This is where it gets difficult for punters. Unless you have a mathematical betting system to tell you what the odds should be based on previous games, you'll have to rely on your own instinct to identify which odds are good and which aren't so good.
Manage Your Money
In the previous step, we walked you through everything it takes to find a profitable bet. Combining individual bets into a profitable betting strategy, though, takes a bit more effort. In this step, we'll look at what you should do to ensure long-term betting success.
Choose low risk bets
Generally speaking, we suggest opting for low risk bets. As you'll see in a second, this step revolves around managing the risk levels in your betting strategy, and the first way you can do that is by choosing the right bets. In practice, low risk bets are usually the ones with the lowest odds, since other users (or the bookmaker, in the case of a betting exchange) also realize that the risks are low. You can bet on higher risk bets — with better odds — but you'll have to adapt the size of your bets.
Place small bets
Speaking of the size of your bets, always opt to make several, smaller bets than just one big one. This is because you want to spread your risk out across as much as possible. Even if there's a really great betting opportunity out there, you don't want to risk losing your entire betting balance if it goes wrong. Many betting experts suggest placing only a few percent of your portfolio on each individual bet.
Modulate size of bets
Looking at the risk profile of each individual bet should help you decide how big a bet to place. For bets that are extremely likely, with low odds, you might want to place bigger bets. However, for bets that are extremely unlikely, with high odds, you might want to place smaller bets. You'll see that the overall effect of doing so is that you spread the risk (and reward) of the bets across the two categories.
From time to time, stop to reassess your betting strategy. You may find that betting on some markets has been extremely profitable, or — on the flipside — mostly unprofitable. This will help you to improve the decisions you make in the future. For example, you may end up placing larger bets on one type of market (which you usually win on), and stopping betting on another (which is responsible for the majority of your losses). Make sure not to do this analysis too often, as you'll need a good-sized dataset to make meaningful conclusions.
The Alternative: Hinto
There's an alternative to doing all this yourself. Hinto is a new sports betting algorithm, backed by Oxford scientists, that uses big data and machine learning techniques to find profitable betting tips. However, Hinto is no ordinary tipster: it also tells you exactly what bets to place (down to the stake!) based on a £2,000 bankroll, ensuring long-term profitability. In two years of operation, Hinto has given its punters an impressive 12% a month of returns.
If you want to forget about all of the complexities of profitable football betting — and turn your passion for punting into a side income — then sign-up for Hinto and start placing our tips today. All you'll need is an account on the Betfair Exchange!